Hurricane-force gusts! Bomb cyclone! Life-threatening atmospheric-river flooding! Have you noticed how almost every storm or weather event now has some catastrophic description attached to it? While extreme weather has certainly been on the rise—and likely to continue—not every weather event is deserving of this level of hype.
Why is weather hype a problem?
1. public safety
In a way, it’s hard to blame producers, writers, and even content creators from trying to get clicks in a more competitive multi-platform space, but when every weather event is exaggerated to get attention, it desensitizes the public to truly hazardous events, putting them at risk. If people are conditioned to think every storm will have catastrophic effects and then do not see that come to fruition, they might stop taking necessary precautions, such as putting out sandbags to protect from flooding or debris flows, prepping pipes to prevent from freezing, or simply staying off the road during projected heavy rain. In worst case scenarios, people may ignore mandatory evacuation orders, not only endangering their own life but the lives of any emergency personnel who may be called upon to rescue them from a preventable predicament.
2. Undermining true Subject-matter experts
The number one job of any meteorologist is to protect life and property. Social media can be a powerful tool to help accomplish that with far-reaching instantaneous access to the people at risk. The downside is the emergence of armchair experts. Surprisingly, almost anyone can call themselves a meteorologist relatively unchecked. These untrained TV personalities and content creators can and do easily spread hype, misinformation, and confusion, undermining and eroding trust in the true subject-matter experts. How do you know that person actually knows what they’re talking about? Check their bio—do they have an advanced degree in a relevant Earth Sciences field, such as atmospheric, geological, or oceanic sciences? A weather certificate from a university is not the same as a four-year degree. You can check if they are certified by the American Meteorological Society as either a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist, Certified Consulting Meteorologist, and/or Certified Digital Meteorologist. When all else fails, the National Weather Service only hires credentialed meteorologists, so their information is assuredly reputable.
What are some of the most overhyped phrases?
1. atmospheric river
An atmospheric river (AR) is simply moisture (water vapor) in the atmosphere that reaches a certain magnitude for a certain period of time. Originally, a minimum of 24 hours duration was required to officially be classified as an AR. An AR does not tell you how much rain is forecast to fall, but can give a hint about the rainfall potential—if it’s aligned with a particularly strong storm.
The AR scale was developed as a way to officially categorize the severity of events, but since this is separate from the actual rainfall forecast, it may not be meaningful to the public; the rain total forecast is the actionable intel emergency managers and other stakeholders should be heeding.
While storms tapping into significant ARs have been responsible for serious flooding and damage, not every storm that technically qualifies as an AR will produce these same effects. Yet, the media seemingly finds any way to include the term atmospheric river as clickbait, even with completely non-related events.
Every single winter storm is not an AR. Most true meteorologists know this, but headline writers and content creators do not.
2. hurricane-force gusts
First of all, there is no such thing. Hurricane-strength winds are measured by sustained winds, which is the highest average wind in a one-minute period recorded over a ten-minute interval. On the other hand, gusts are the highest winds recorded in a three-second period.
The Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale defines a category 1 hurricane as having sustained winds of at least 74 mph. When areas not accustomed to hurricane-strength winds, such as California, have wind events that produce wind gusts of 75 to 90 mph, the headlines scream “Hurricane-force winds!” The problem? A 74-mph sustained wind is not equal in force to a 74-mph wind gust. The amount of force exerted by a sustained wind is roughly 30 percent higher than that of a wind gust. In other words, even though gusts are a higher number than sustained winds, they’re weaker in force.
So what happens when a true hurricane—like Hurricane Hilary—takes aim at Southern California? The public underestimates the actual wind risk.
3. bomb cyclone
Yes, this is a real thing. Bombogenesis, explosive cyclogenesis, bomb cyclone—they all mean the same thing: rapid intensification of a storm where the central pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. These are relatively rare, typically occurring once or twice a year in the United States. Frequency can also fluctuate based on the year and the Eastern Seaboard tends to get hit with them more than the West Coast.
Clearly, not every storm can be a bomb cyclone but the media has hyped some that don’t meet the thresholds as such.
the bottom line
Where and from whom you get your weather information matters. When all else fails, the National Weather Service is usually a great reliable resource. Don’t fall prey to media weather hype so you know how to keep yourself safe.
